ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet helps you make smart fantasy and betting decisions. OKBET Sportsbook provides NBA game odds for October 27; ESPN 10-team leagues inform fantasy advice.
What do you need to know about the games on Thursday Fatigue?
The Nets were 3-11 outright (5-9 ATS) on the second night of back-to-backs last season and are in their first such situation this season- (they have two more over the next 17 days). In nine of those 14 games, under tickets cashed, and the Nets team total was a worthwhile target (106.9 PPG). It’s early in the season, but Kevin Durant has as many turnovers as assists this season and has yet to shoot better than 33.3% from deep in a game.
Josh Giddey (ankle) will miss his second consecutive game, and that sound you hear is Tre Mann’s fantasy managers celebrating (or savvy prop bettors). Mann shot 24 times from the field in 36 minutes against the Clippers on Tuesday, a per minute shot rate that was 54.9% higher than his three games to start the season.
The Clippers have given up at least 108 points in three straight games, so if the Thunder can keep up their pace, Mann could be in for another busy night.
Jordan Poole came into this season with a reputation as an instant offense type of player who could fill it up quickly. That remains true, but he’s quietly added play-making to his arsenal, which roto fantasy managers and prop bettors must be loving.
This season, the 23-year-old is averaging an assist for every two shots taken, which is nearly double his career rate. Does it last? It’s difficult to say, but we’ll get a good look tonight against a Heat team that has been in the top ten in defensive efficiency since the start of last season.
Stackramento: The winless Kings host the surging Grizzlies this evening in Sacramento in a game with the highest total on the slate (236.5). Memphis is sixth in offensive rating but also last in offensive rating after being blown out by Dallas last weekend. Meanwhile, the Kings rank sixth in pace and twenty-first in defensive rating, adding even more possessions to this fantasy-friendly setup.
On a four-game slate, stacking DFS lineups with both of these defensively deficient rosters makes sense. With Ja Morant, Domantas Sabonis, and De’Aaron Fox as cornerstones, complementary shares of Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, Desmond Bane, and even Santi Aldama could pay off. For those looking for some streaming options, Huerter (53% available in ESPN leagues) has increased his 3-point volume by 48.2% since last season with Atlanta, while Aldama (76%) is playing big minutes for the Grizzlies and producing a nice mix of blocks and boards.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
Nets line (-2.5)
Mavericks (-145), Nets (+122) on the money line
225 points total
Total projected by the BPI: 233.6 points
BPI win percentage: Mavericks (58.7%).
Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) and Markieff Morris are both questionable (personal)
Seth Curry (ankle), Davis Bertans (knee), and Frank Ntilikina are all out (ankle)
Nota bene: BPI numbers include players who have been ruled out but assume questionable players will play.
Royce O’Neale (available in 80.5% of leagues) is a consistent 3-and-D threat in fantasy. He has at least two stocks and a 3-pointer in every game this season, averaging 3.5 steals and blocks per game and 2.3 3-pointers per game. Snellings, André
Christian Wood over 18.5 points is the best bet. The offense of the Mavericks is almost entirely dependent on Luka Doncic, Christian Wood, and Spencer Dinwiddie. Betting the over-stack (e.g., over points on all three of them) has been profitable so far this season, but it doesn’t appear that Vegas has caught up to Wood’s role with his new team. He’s scored 25 points, 25 points, and 23 points in three games so far; he’s getting plenty of shots as the primary option in the second unit and main scoring lieutenant when Luka is on the court. — Snellings
LA Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
8:00 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Line: Clippers (-6)
Money line: Clippers (-250), Thunder (+205).
Total: 218.5 points
Total projected by BPI: 222.7 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (58%)
Paul George is a suspect (illness)
Kawhi Leonard (knee), Marcus Morris Sr. (personal), Josh Giddey (ankle), and Jalen Williams have all been ruled out (eye)
Note: BPI numbers include players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play.
Clippers -6 are the best bet. The Clippers fell to the Thunder in the first game of a back-to-back set. However, Los Angeles was missing Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard has already been ruled out due to knee stiffness. While George is questionable for tonight’s game due to an illness, there is a good chance he will play.
The Clippers do not want to lose consecutive games to the Thunder. Los Angeles is my pick to win. The Thunder are a poor offensive team, ranking 27th in points scored per 100 possessions. Oklahoma City has allowed opponents an effective field goal percentage of 54.1% this season. — Eric Moody
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET, Golden One Center, Sacramento, Calif.
Line: Grizzlies (-3)
Money line: Grizzlies (-165), Kings (+140).
Total: 237 points
Total projected by BPI: 236.6 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (52.5%)
John Konchar (shoulder)
Ziaire Williams is ruled out (knee)
Note: BPI numbers include players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play.
Santi Aldama (rostered in 23.2%) is a fantastic fantasy streamer against the Kings. This season, he’s averaged 12.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 1.3 BPG in 30.8 MPG and has scored 30 or more fantasy points in three of four games. The Kings rank 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions, which also helps the cause. — Eric Moody
Over 16.5 points is the best bet for Keegan Murray. Murray has averaged 17.5 points per game in his first two NBA games, coming off the bench but seeing plenty of action. He’ll be in the starting lineup on Thursday, and while his minutes can’t really be increased, this vote of confidence puts him on the court with playmakers who can get him more open looks. Murray demonstrated in the Las Vegas Summer League that he is ready to be a professional NBA scorer right now, and he has a quickness advantage over Santi Aldama that should allow him to be aggressive as a scorer in his first start. — Snellings
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
10:00 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Line: Warriors (-6.5)
Money line: Warriors (-260), Heat (+210).
Total: 227 points
Total projected by BPI: 227.9 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (67.7%)
Andre Iguodala (hip), Donte DiVincenzo (hamstring), Omer Yurtseven (ankle), and Victor Oladipo (ankle) are all out (knee)
Note: BPI numbers include players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play.
James Wiseman (available in 65.4% of leagues) has proven that he can produce efficiently even when given limited minutes off the bench. Wiseman has scored in double figures in three straight games and is averaging 11.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 0.8 BPG in 17.8 MPG this season. As part of the second unit, he should be able to avoid Bam Adebayo, and Wiseman’s physical tools should allow him to get the better of Dewayne Dedmon and the otherwise undersized Heat frontline. — Snellings
Over 25.5 points + assists + rebounds is the best bet. Wiggins has averaged 20.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.8 APG, 2.0 SPG, and 1.3 BPG in 32.3 MPG this season. He has a season usage rate of 21.7% and will face a Heat defense that has been shredded by small forwards. Miami has allowed 28.3 PPG, 4.05 APG, and 8.7 RPG to the position. — Eric Moody
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