MLB Betting Analyst for FOX Sports
The New York Yankees are out for vengeance after losing Game 1 of the MLB American League championship series to the Houston Astros on Wednesday. As usual, I’ve got you covered in terms of betting on Game 2.
I will walk you through the playoffs by providing you with daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game and selecting some bets for the daily slate.
The school bell has rung, which can only mean one thing.
The class has resumed!
Here are my picks for Thursday’s games, with odds provided by Fox Bet (all times ET)
You could argue that no two starting pitchers in this postseason are more dissimilar than what we’ll see in Game 2 of the ALCS. Luis Severino is heavy metal, and Framber Valdez is smooth jazz, to use a musical metaphor. The Yankees starter relies on his 96-mph four-seam fastball. Then, when he needs to remove something from one of his deliveries, he’ll use his slider, which has an expected top speed of 85 mph.
Severino should provide two things to Houston: a lot of velocity that will find the strike zone and a short stint. Only four times did the Yankee pitcher pitch more than six innings. I expect Severino to pitch well until he faces Yordan Alvarez, a left-handed hitter who is a slugger when a pitch is in the strike zone. My preference is for Alvarez to hit a home run (+240 on FOX Bet).
Framber Valdez, the groundball pitcher to end all groundball pitchers, keeps his sinker and curveball low so that all of the action stays in the infield. Even though his average exit velocity is one of the slowest in baseball, he can make good contact if he misses in the strike zone. Valdez has given up seven home runs to righties in the center and on the outside, one of which was to Giancarlo Stanton in June.
On his best days, Valdez is virtually unhittable, but he’s up against a team that ranks fourth in expected weighted on-base average against curveballs and sinkers. The Yankees should score more than 2.5 runs.
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