The Big 12 is as competitive as any conference in college basketball, having produced two National Champions in Baylor and last year’s champions, Kansas. Can the Jayhawks win it all despite losing Ochai Agbaji, David McCormack, and Christian Braun? Will an ultra-talented Baylor team reclaim its national title with a reloaded roster led by Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer?
Let’s take a look at the Big 12, which should have another strong season with several NCAA Tournament teams:
Big 12 Preseason Poll 2022-2023
- 122. Baylor (8)
- 121. Kansas (5)
- Texas, 98
- TCU, 96
- Texas Tech, 80 points
- Oklahoma State, 64 points
- 46. Oklahoma
- Iowa State (36 points)
- 33. West Virginia
- 19 Kansas State
In parenthesis, first place
The Jayhawks are the defending champions, but they are not the favorite to win the Big 12 this season, as Baylor has reloaded for another title run. KU, on the other hand, will be a formidable opponent this season, with Jalen Wilson and others returning for coach Bill Self.
This is a top-10 unit, which is saying a lot given the aforementioned talent loss. The main reason is that Self signed Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar, an ultra versatile wing who will undoubtedly help this defense.
However, given the talent in Waco this year, the relative inexperience of Self’s group keeps this team from being a preseason favorite.
KenPom College Basketball Rankings for the Big 12
- 6 Baylor
- Iowa State: 62 points
- 8 Kansas
- Kansas State: 77 points
- 28. Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State: 30 points
- TCU: 16
- Texas: 2
- Texas Tech is ranked 17th.
- 73. West Virginia
- Baylor (+1500) is the Big 12 favorite.
This team is arguably the best bet for the upcoming season. The team is well-stocked at every position and has enough depth to withstand injuries. We’ll start in the backcourt, where the team returns senior Adam Flager and sophomore LJ Cryer, both of whom averaged double digits last season. Both are lights out shooters from beyond the arc, shooting over 38%, and will be backed up by transfer Dale Bonner and freshman Langston Love.
Keyontae George, the team’s premier bucket getter, is a five-star recruit who will likely have NBA Draft buzz all season. In Baylor’s no-middle defensive scheme, he’s a willing passer with great length to check guards and forwards.
Baylor has been consistently nasty down low, shutting down the rim and crashing the glass, and the return of Flo Thamba and Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchachoua should only add to that. This figure has been declining all summer and will most likely continue to fall throughout the winter.
TCU (+4800) is a Big 12 dark horse
TCU is coming off their best season under Jamie Dixon, when they took No. 1 seed Arizona to overtime in the NCAA Tournament’s second round. Last season, Mike Miles Jr. averaged 15 points per game and returns alongside a trio of starting seniors in Damion Baugh, Chuck O’Bannon Jr, and Eddie Lampkin.
Last season, this was a top 20 defense, as physical as they come, and with a slew of key contributors returning, I expect that to continue. Can the offense, however, take a step forward?
The team had the lowest turnover rate in the country and shot 30% from beyond the arc (321st), which will not suffice if the team wants to compete in the Tournament’s second weekend. The team will be hoping that Shahada Wells or Rondel Walker can contribute three points off the bench.
Because of the team’s defense and returning production, there is a high ceiling here, but the next step will be on offense to see if this team can truly compete in the Big 12.
Texas (+2500) is the Big 12 team to fade
Maybe I’ll look stupid saying to fade a team that is ranked in the top 10 in nearly every advanced metric site, including No. 2 according to KenPom, but I need to see it with Chris Beard in Austin before crowning this team anything.
Tyrese Hunter (Iowa State) and Sir’Jabari Rice (Iowa State) were both acquired by Beard via the transfer portal (New Mexico State). Adding Hunter should alleviate some of Texas’ ball handling concerns, as the team returns known bucket getters Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen to provide some scoring punch.
The defense should continue to be elite under Beard, but it was a clunky fit in Austin last season after Beard essentially brought in a whole new roster full of high-profile transfers. Can this team gel after another year together? Dylan Disu is finally healthy, and he and Christian Bishop will form a formidable frontcourt duo.
The Longhorns will always be a tough out, but I’m not as optimistic about them as some are heading into the season. I see a significant gap between this team and teams like Baylor and Kansas, but the market does not, so they are an early season fade for me until there is an adjustment.
Game odds are updated on a regular basis and are subject to change.
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