A look at those who were ranked too high and too low in the preseason Coaches Poll, which was released on Tuesday.
If you thought AP Top 25 poll voters were prone to being wrong about preseason college basketball rankings – and believe me, I have plenty of beef with them – then you’ll be surprised [heavy sarcasm!] to learn that I have a major beef with how coaches rank college basketball teams in the preseason.
The 2022-23 preseason Coaches Poll was released on Tuesday, and the top coaches got it mostly right. North Carolina was ranked first in the AP poll and in Caesars Sportsbook’s national title odds. Gonzaga, Houston, and Kentucky were ranked Nos. 2, 3, and 4, respectively, mirroring the AP Top 25 and deviating only slightly from the CBS Sports Top 25 and betting market.
But as the rest of the Coaches Poll was whittled down to 25, there were a few I had to disagree with. Some major omissions. Some minor omissions. So, for the record, I’ve listed a few teams that I believe are overrated – and a few that I believe are underrated.
Let us get started.
Overrated College Basketball Team
Arizona
Preseason Coaches Poll ranking: No. 13
The betting public appears to be high on Arizona – Caesars Sportsbook currently has the Wildcats with the 10th-best odds to win the national championship – and coaches appear to be more in sync with oddsmakers than experts. Arizona is ranked 17th in CBS Sports’ Top 25. In the AP poll, they are also ranked first and seventeenth. That’s about where I’d put them. There is nothing wrong with ranking the Wildcats ahead of every other Pac-12 team, but there is something wrong with ranking them ahead of TCU, Virginia, and Auburn. No. 13 feels a little too generous for a team that lost two first-round picks and an early second-round pick, even if it recovered quite well overall with a strong transfer class and freshmen haul.
Alabama
Coaches Poll preseason ranking: No. 19
Teams I would rank higher than Alabama that were ranked lower in the Coaches Poll include Michigan, Illinois, San Diego State, Oregon, and possibly Purdue. It’s possible to argue that this isn’t a preseason top-25 team. Nate Oats is, after all, a wizard, so if this team is in the top-15 by the end of the season, it would not be surprising. However, the Tide lost leading scorer Jaden Shackelford, second-leading scorer Jahvon Quinerly, who is still recovering from an ACL tear, third-leading scorer Keon Ellis, who is off to the NBA, and fourth-leading scorer JD Davison. This team has a knack for unearthing underrated talent through the transfer portal and has two incoming five-star freshmen, so the talent should be pretty solid, but this isn’t a top-five SEC team as coaches ranked them.
Underrated College Basketball Team
Arkansas
Coaches Poll preseason ranking: No. 10
You could make the same case for Arkansas as I did for Alabama — most of its top scorers from last season are gone, so it’s difficult to have too high of expectations — but in the case of the Hogs, I just don’t buy it. It would be nonsense. [Heh.] Arkansas has two of the best freshmen in the country in Nick Smith, the No. 1 recruit in 2022, and Anthony Black, the No. 15 recruit in 2022. This team has a lot of talent and potential. It’s difficult to bet on youth in college basketball with so much experience dominating the top of the rankings this year, but Arkansas’ talent warrants the love and more. For me, this is a top six preseason team. We have faith in Eric Musselman, people. Watching the Hogs this season is going to be a blast.
Texas
Coaches Poll preseason ranking: No. 12
Texas’ 22-12 season in its first season under Chris Beard has thrown everyone – including coaches – off the scent of the Longhorns. And what a blunder that was. People forget that Beard may be the best tactician in the entire sport. And he has a team that is clearly superior to his first in Austin. The top two scorers are back, they added a defensive stalwart in Tyrese Hunter, and they signed the No. 3 recruiting class in America. Baylor is the Big 12’s class this season, in my opinion, but Texas — yes, over Kansas — isn’t far behind.
When comparing 2022-23 preseason rankings, odds
| ew | AP TOP 25 | COACHES POLL | TOP 25 AND 1 | CAESARS SPORTSBOOK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina | North Carolina | Gonzaga | North Carolina +800 |
| 2 | Gonzaga | Gonzaga | North Carolina | Gonzaga +900 |
| 3 | Houston | Houston | Houston | Kentucky +900 |
| 4 | Kentucky | Kentucky | Kentucky | UCLA +1200 |
| 5 | Kansas | Kansas | Duke | Houston +1200 |
| 5 | Baylor | Baylor | Arkansas | Arkansas +1500 |
| 7 | Duke | UCLA | Baylor | Duke +1800 |
| 8 | UCLA | Duke | Kansas | Baylor +1800 |
| 9 | Creighton | Creighton | Tennessee | Kansas +2000 |
| 10 | Arkansas | Arkansas | UCLA | Arizona +2200 |
| 11 | Tennessee | Tennessee | Creighton | Creighton +3000 |
| 12 | Texas | Texas | Texas | Michigan +3000 |
| 13 | Indiana | Arizona | Indiana | Texas +3000 |
| 14 | TCU | Indiana | Auburn | Indiana +3000 |
| 15 | Auburn | Auburn | TCU | Tennessee +3000 |
| 16 | Villanova | TCU | Virginia | Texas Tech +4000 |
| 17 | Arizona | Villanova | Arizona | Illinois +5000 |
| 18 | Virginia | Virginia | Villanova | TCU +5000 |
| 19 | San Diego St. | Alabama | Texas A&M | Alabama +5000 |
| 20 | Alabama | San Diego St. | Michigan | Auburn +6000 |
| 21 | Oregon | Oregon | San Diego State | UConn +6000 |
| 22 | Michigan | Michigan | Oregon | Michigan State +6000 |
| 23 | Illinois | Illinois | Alabama | Villanova +6000 |
| 24 | Dayton | Texas Tech | Purdue | Oregon +6000 |
| 25 | Texas Tech | Dayton | Dayton | Virginia +6000 |
| 26 | Ohio State | San Diego State +7000 |
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