Neither team has a reason to play. Saskatchewan’s playoff hopes were dashed last week, and Calgary has already determined its opponent. With that said, our CFL betting picks believe Calgary will come out on top — find out why.
The Calgary Stampeders host the Saskatchewan Roughriders at McMahon Stadium on Saturday night to conclude the 2022 CFL regular season. In this rematch from last week, neither team has much to play for, with the Stamps looking forward to the West Division semifinal next weekend and the Riders preparing to pack their lockers for an early offseason.
According to CFL betting lines, the Stampeders opened as 5.5-point home favorites in this Week 21 matchup. Here are my best CFL betting picks and predictions for the Roughriders vs. Stampeders game on October 29.
Best odds for Roughriders vs Stampeders
Picks and predictions for the Roughriders vs. Stampeders
It could be argued that the Stampeders should be favored in this spot because they have little to play for and don’t want to risk injury before next week’s playoff road game against the Lions. Having said that, they also didn’t have anything to play for last week and still won 32-21 on the road at Mosaic.
In that game, the Roughriders’ season was on the line, but they didn’t seem to care, benching veteran quarterback Cody Fajardo in favor of untested sophomore Mason Fine. With that defeat, the Riders are officially eliminated and will struggle to find motivation on Saturday after a disappointing season.
The Stamps may rest a few key players this weekend. They should be fine, though, given that backup QB Bo Levi Mitchell is a two-time MOP winner and backup running back Dedrick Mills has broken 100 yards twice this season (including 103 yards on 17 carries last week). I’ll take the home team against a Saskatchewan team that has most likely mentally checked out.
Stampeders -5.5 is my best bet (-105 at OKBET Sports Betting)
Analysis of the Roughriders vs. Stampeders spread
This season, the Stamps are 11-6 straight up, with all of their losses coming by fewer than three points or on the game’s final possession. Jake Maier took over for Mitchell in the middle of the season and led the league in scoring with 30.9 points per game.
Despite three games against the high-powered Blue Bombers and an early-season shootout against the Lions when they had record-breaking QB Nathan Rourke, the defense was also impressive, ranking third in the league with 22.8 ppg allowed.
After their loss last week, the Riders were officially eliminated from the playoffs, and their record now stands at 6-11 SU (7-10 ATS). Even before that game, they appeared to throw in the towel by announcing that 25-year-old Mason Fine and his 51 career pass attempts in the CFL would start over Fajardo. Sure, Fajardo has been inconsistent this season, but he’s experienced, and Saskatchewan’s terrible offensive line hasn’t helped him.
That line has allowed a league-high 71 sacks (eighteen more than second-worst Edmonton) and hasn’t been any better in front of Fine. He ate dirt five times and finished with only 196 yards passing in that loss.
As previously stated, even if Calgary decides to rest players, they have enough depth to not miss a beat. Ka’Deem Carey leads the league in rushing yards with 1,088 but the dropoff from him to backups Mills and Peyton Logan isn’t significant. The Stamps’ pass rush has been their biggest strength, and they have a great rotation of four defensive ends who can get to the quarterback.
The Stamps have been pretty banged up in the secondary and wide receiver corps, so they can’t really dig any deeper on their depth chart. In fact, wide receivers Kamar Jorden and Luther Hakunavanhu, as well as defensive backs Titus Wall and Natrell Jamerson, all returned to full practice on Tuesday after missing significant time due to injuries. The Stamps will most likely give those guys some reps on Saturday so they aren’t thrown into the fire of a playoff game right away.
Over/Under prediction for Roughriders vs Stampeders
Something had to change for Saskatchewan’s sputtering offense, which ranked last in the league in second-down conversion rate (39.9%) and average yards per play (5.7). That said, changing quarterbacks at this point in the season is pointless, and as we saw last week, Fine isn’t an upgrade.
Calgary leads the CFL in opponent second-down conversion rate (42.2%) and sacks (50). That makes it ideal for exploiting Saskatchewan’s attack’s flaws. With the Stamps’ ability to force turnovers and the Riders’ penchant for killing their own drives with penalties, I don’t see Saskatchewan moving the chains here.
The Riders’ defense might not fare much better either. While they were stingy earlier in the season, they have drastically regressed in recent months, with Anthony Lanier’s absence affecting their ability to apply pressure up the middle.
Roughriders vs Stampeders trend to be aware of
This season, the Stampeders are 8-8-1 ATS. More CFL betting trends for Roughriders vs. Stampeders can be found here.
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