Toronto and Montreal square off in what could be a preview of the Eastern Final. We’re fading Montreal’s offense, which won’t be at full strength with both teams locked into their current playoff seed. More information can be found in our Alouettes vs. Argonauts betting predictions.
The CFL regular season concludes this weekend with a rematch between the Montreal Alouettes and the Toronto Argonauts on Friday night.
The Argonauts defeated the Als 24-23 last week to clinch first place in the East Division, and with a first-round bye secured, backup quarterback Chad Kelly will start on Friday. The Boatmen were 3.5-point home favorites before the line was reduced to -3.
Here are my best free CFL predictions and picks for the Alouettes vs. Argonauts game on October 28.
Best odds for Alouettes vs. Argonauts
Picks and predictions for Alouettes vs. Argonauts
This game is difficult to predict because neither team has anything to play for and both could rest starters on both sides of the ball.
I’m hesitant to bet on the spread with so much uncertainty in terms of personnel. We do know who will be at quarterback, which makes me more confident in betting the Under on Montreal’s team total.
The Alouettes will rest starting quarterback Trevor Harris in favor of Dominique Davis and Davis Alexander.
Alexander is a rookie who impressed in the preseason but has yet to play in the NFL.
Davis is a short-yardage specialist who has 12 touchdowns on the ground this season. He’s a career backup quarterback with limited passing ability who has thrown 12 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.
I don’t like their chances of moving the ball, regardless of who is throwing the ball, especially with Als center Sean Jamieson and their two best receivers (Eugene Lewis and Reggie White Jr.) sitting out practice this week.
The Argos have been practicing with the majority of their defenders this week, and even if they choose to rest a few of them, they have enough depth to limit a pair of backup quarterbacks in what will most likely be a vanilla offense.
My best bet is an Alouettes team total of less than 22.5 points (-108 at OKBET Sports Betting)
Spread comparison: Alouettes vs. Argonauts
Last week, these two teams battled in Montreal, with the Argos leading 16-6 entering the fourth quarter. The Als stormed back to tie the game with less than a minute remaining, but the Argos won on a missed field goal as time expired.
That victory secured the division title for the Argonauts, who will have a bye week before hosting the Eastern Final on November 13. Meanwhile, regardless of what happens on Friday, the Als will have to settle for a home playoff date with the Ticats next week.
In their previous meeting this season, the Alouettes were defeated by the Argonauts by a single point. In Week 2, Montreal kicker David Cote missed a potential game-winning 21-yard field goal with less than a minute remaining, leading to a 20-19 Toronto victory.
These are two evenly matched teams that have recently played well. In their last nine games, the Als are 6-3 SU (5-3-1 ATS), while the Argos have won seven of their last eight, going 5-2-1 ATS.
Having said that, this contest will most likely come down to depth and which side wants it the most.
Over/Under prediction for Alouettes vs. Argonauts
The Als aren’t the only team resting their starting quarterback, with the Argos going with rookie Chad Kelly, a former Mississippi college star.
Chad Kelly, the nephew of Bills great Jim Kelly, was unable to stay in the NFL (due in part to off-field issues), but he has talent and could be an impact player at this level.
It’s difficult to say how much of a step down Kelly is from regular starter McLeod Bethel-Thompson, but the fact that Toronto’s team total has remained unchanged despite the news says a lot.
We’re not sure who we’ll see on defense for either team. It’s worth noting, however, that Montreal rested star defensive tackle Almondo Sewell on Wednesday, while several other starters, including Raheem Wilson, Micah Awe, Nafees Lyon, and Thomas Costigan, are injured and haven’t practiced.
Toronto’s defense has allowed only 22.8 points per game and has the most interceptions in the league with 27. The Argos have also dealt with injuries on their defensive line and in their secondary all season, so even if they do use some backups, they will have players with experience on the field.
The Alouettes vs. Argonauts trend to be aware of
The Under is 5-1 in the Alouettes’ last six games and 5-2 in the Argonauts’ previous seven. More CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Argonauts can be found here.
Game information for the Alouettes vs. Argonauts
Location: BMO Field in Toronto, Ontario
Date: 29th of October, 2022
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. ET
Key injuries for the Alouettes vs. Argonauts
Alouettes: Reggie White Jr. WR (Uncertain), Sean Jamieson C (Uncertain), Micah Awe LB (Uncertain), Nafees Lyon CB (Uncertain), Raheem Wilson DB (Uncertain), Thomas Costigan DL (Uncertain), Greg Reid DB (Out).
Isiah Cage (OT) (Questionable), Trevon Tate (OT) (Questionable), Peter Nicastro C (Out), Wynton McManis LB (Out), Damonte Coxie WR (Out), Eric Rogers WR (Out), Shane Ray DE (Questionable) (Out).
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